Stock Market

Stocks Finish Flat As Financial Conditions Tighten Further

The S&P 500 finished the day lower by 13 bps. It was a volatile day, with the market dropping sharply to open and rallying sharply, only to close flat.

There was a strong sell-off at the open, with the S&P 500 falling to around 3,720 and rebounding nearly 80 points to 3,800. But in the end, it closed at approximately 3,760.

Maybe it was due to Powell’s testimony; I’m not sure. He had nothing new to say, which may have been reason enough to rally.

I don’t think anything changed yesterday, so I will stick with my view that the S&P 500 retraces to under 3,700 in the next couple of sessions.

S&P 500, 5-Min Chart

Financial Conditions

As measured by the iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:IEF)/iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF (NYSE:LQD) ratio, financial conditions tightened again Wednesday and made a new closing high for the cycle.

So typically, when this ratio rises, it tends to coincide with the S&P 500 dropping. So either the ratio is playing catch up to the S&P 500, or the S&P 500 has a new low coming very soon.

Thursday will tell us a lot.

I inverted the IEF/LQD ratio on the chart below to make the relationship with the S&P 500 easier to see.

IEF/LQD Daily Chart


Yesterday, I wrote up a story about Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM) and a potential move lower in the stock. A bearish megaphone has formed, which could see the stock fall first to around $83, but I think there is potential for $70.

Exxon Mobil Corp Daily Chart


Copper prices have been dropping, and Wednesday, Freeport-McMoran Copper & Gold (NYSE:FCX) also fell by nearly 8%.

It is a big spot for Freeport on the chart, with the stock hovering around technical support at $30. Where copper goes, Freeport will follow. But if Freeport drops below $30, there is a long way for this to fall, potentially to as low as $26.

Freeport Daily Chart


Copper is now trading below $4 and appears to be heading to around $3.70, which is the next big support level.

Copper Futures Daily Chart

Taiwan Semi

As noted over the weekend, copper seems to be following Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (NYSE:TSM) lower. So it probably isn’t a good sign that Taiwan Semi is back to trading at its recent lows. This is, of course, also bad news for Freeport.

Copper Futures/TSM Daily Chart


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